Last month, the Eurasia Group Foundation released a report entitled “Inflection Point: Americans’ Foreign Policy Views After Afghanistan”. Here is the Executive Summary:
On August 30, 2021, the last US soldier evacuated Afghanistan, ending the longest war in American history. The withdrawal elicited disapproval from the professional foreign policy community, who expressed dismay and distress over the future of America’s global role. The public debate sparked by the withdrawal is an important and perhaps long overdue one. So the results of our fourth annual survey of Americans’ foreign policy views arrives at an opportune moment. Here are some of the key observations, which will hopefully inform this debate:
Americans want the US to be engaged diplomatically in the world
Nearly three times as many Americans – 58 percent vs. 21 percent – want to increase as decrease diplomatic engagement with the world;
A plurality of Americans fit a “Global Ambassadors” type. They support active diplomacy but oppose increasing America’s troop presence worldwide;
When asked to rank the forms of international assistance they think the United States should prioritize, the most popular types were non-military: (1) humanitarian aid and disaster relief, and (2) COVID-19 relief such as vaccine donations;
Sixty-three percent support reviving nuclear negotiations with Iran and pursuing an agreement which prevents the development of nuclear weapons;
But they also want to scale back America’s military posture and activities
Most (62 percent) think the biggest lesson from the war in Afghanistan was that the United States should not be in the business of nation-building or that it should only send troops into harm’s way if vital national interests are threatened;
A plurality wants to decrease the number of US troops stationed overseas and reduce security commitments to countries in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East;
Support for United States-led military intervention to stop human rights abuses decreased by 14 percent between 2020 and 2021; (and support for the United Nations taking the lead increased by 14 percent);
In recent years, Congress has largely ceded its war-making prerogative to the executive branch. 76 percent believe the president should seek Congressional approval before ordering military action;
Seventy percent believe “the US should negotiate directly with adversaries to try to avoid military confrontation, even if those adversaries are human rights abusers, dictators, or home to terrorist organizations;”
Americans generally make a positive appraisal of drone strikes: nearly 70 percent believe they are less costly than sending US troops into combat, or are an effective tool in depriving terrorists of safe havens in remote parts of the world;
In part because they want to redirect resources to domestic priorities
Twice as many Americans want to decrease the defense budget as increase it. The most cited rationale for decreasing the defense budget is a desire to redirect resources domestically;
Half of Americans have a “Jeffersonian” outlook: they are more eager to protect democracy at home than promote it abroad. This outlook increased by 35 percent since 2018;
Though there is little consensus around how to address other great powers
The number of respondents who think the United States should act militarily to prevent Russian troops from invading a NATO ally decreased by six percentage points between 2020 and 2021, and Americans are divided down the middle on this issue;
For the second year in a row, Americans are evenly split on whether the United States should increase or decrease its troop presence in Asia;
While a slight plurality of respondents believe the United States should militarily defend Taiwan, Americans appear ambivalent on the issue: 40 percent are unsure about what the United States should do in the case of a Chinese invasion;
Younger Americans (18 to 29 year-olds) are especially weary of war
Eighty percent believe that unless the United States is under attack, the president should be required to seek approval from Congress before ordering military action overseas;
Nearly two-thirds believe the United States should respond to China’s rise by decreasing the US troop presence in Asia, a seven percent increase from last year;
Of all age groups surveyed, young Americans are the most likely to believe the United States is “not an exceptional nation” (60 percent) and least likely to believe it is “exceptional because of what it has done for the world” (12 percent);
Nearly 60 percent are critical of the use of drones, more than twice as many as the older age groups;
Five times as many want to decrease as increase current levels of defense spending.
Meanwhile, what are America’s leaders doing? Last week, the House of Representatives voted to expand the mandatory age-18 Selective Service registration to include women, as part of an annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which at $778 billion this year gave President Joe Biden $24 billion more than he asked for.
Neither this report or the ‘doubling of the draft’ got that much attention by the corporate media, but Americans should be questioning why their elected leaders are ignoring public opinion.
The twenty-year-long Afghan war cost this country trillions of dollars and thousands of lives. The opportunity costs are stupefying. This is a moment when the country could significantly change direction away from war funding and waging ‘endless war’. This could be a new path. Don’t miss this opportunity.